Estonia's nuclear ambitions

There's been talk in the press recently about whether or not Estonia should build it's own nuclear power plant. To me this is an odd questions so I started reading up on it a bit.

Estonia has always been electricity independent thanks to it's abundance of oil shale deposits in the east and the large power plants near Narva which provide more than enough power for the country and even a little left over to sell to neighbors.

In 2013 the EU electricity market opens up and due to the dirty nature of Estonia's electricity generation it will become prohibitively expensive to produce power (they charge a high CO2 tax on oil shale). So Eesti has started looking into alternative methods to get electricity. The past couple of years Eesti Energia has been talking with the Lithuanians about a partnership to build a new plant in Ignelina where there is a plant right now that has to be shut down shortly due to EU regulations. Apparently the negotiations haven't gone so well, the Poles want a large part of the generation and small Eesti may get pushed out of the deal. Eesti has also asked the Finns whether they can be a part of any future projects in the north since Finland has a number of nukes already running, this option doesn't look likely as they are in the process of building a plant and probably won't need a new one anytime soon.

Because none of these partnerships seem to be working the government has decided to investigate whether building their own, small nuke plant would be a good idea. A couple of locations out on the eastern coast have been mentioned and there is talk of taking the CO2 money that they'll be making in the next couple of years and investing it in a plant that will ensure the future of Estonia's electrical independence.

Does Estonia really need to spend the money to build a plant? Are there no other alternatives? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Post War: A History of Europe Since 1945 - Review

I recently finished reading Tony Judt's excellent book on the history of Europe after WW2. It's a well written overview of the events that shaped modern Europe and describes in detail how the rise of the EU and it's institutions came to be.

It also delves deeply into the conditions and events in Eastern Europe and how they shaped (or failed to shape) the rest of the continent. The first couple of chapters were of particular interest to me, the short period after the war and before the Cold War set in was a precarious time for all of Europe. Security and economic uncertainty was everywhere and a lot of decisions were made with the assumption that Germany could one day rise to threaten the world again.

There were a number of interesting sections that discussed Estonia and its directs neighbors and events that I was either unaware of or found interesting, some of those sections I'll mention here.

Early in the book the author discusses the effects of collective farms and farm quotas on the local populations and how out of touch they were:

The Baltic States, fully incorporated into the Soviet Union itself, were even worse off than the rest of eastern Europe. 1949, kolkhozes in northern Estonia were required to begin grain deliveries even before the harvest had begun, in order to keep in line with Latvia, four hundred kilometers to the south. By 1953 rural conditions in hitherto prosperous Estonia had deteriorated to the point where cows blown over by the wind were too weak to get back on their feet unaided.

Another section that discussed Sweden and the successful social democratic model they employed also mentions various eugenics programs (attempts at racial improvement that usually involved sterilization) that were by run by Uppsala university. I had no idea that such programs existed and continued to exist until 1976.

The chapter on the 1960's discusses some of the reforms that Krushchev tried to undertake, one of which was a small attempt at private farms which apparently worked a little too well.

"By the early sixties, the 3 percent of cultivated soil in private hands was yielding over a third of the Soviet Union's agricultural output."

When discussing centralized planning in East Germany there are some comedic references to the strict nature of quotas that existed.

"It was announced that Book-holdings in the libraries are to be increased from 350k to 450k volumes. The number of borrowings is to be increased 108.2 percent".

In the section about the creation of a common EU currency the author mentions how Germany pushed hard for stringent rules to ensure that the new currency would mimic the policies of the old Deutchmark. This is of particular interest for Eesti as they have been unable to meet the criteria to join the Euro zone simply because inflation grew as the economy heated up.

"The German negotiators - wary of the profligate tendencies of 'Club Med' countries like Italy or Spain - imposed draconian conditions for membership of the new currency."

Overall I thought the book was one of the most readable history books I've read and provided me with a good base for understanding a lot of current EU (and Russian) issues. So if you're looking for a nice 800+ page book to cozy up with next to the fireplace on a wintery night I highly recommend it.

Teder vs Jõks

Reform has given their support to Indrek Teder and it's likely that he'll become the next õiguskantsler (Estonia's version of a constitutional ombudsmen). Teder has supported a recent decision of Jõks where parliament members can't sit on the board of directors of companies (not sure if it's just government firms or all firms?) so it should be interesting to see if Teder gets chosen if he'll push this through against the wishes of Reform and Kesk.

To me it just looks like the main requirement for this job is being bald with think rimmed glasses. :)

Australian advisories

There's an amusing article in most of todays Canadian dailies about Australia's official travel advisory website which warns to "exercise caution" when traveling to Canada. The site lists Canada as more of a risk then Chile, South Korea and Latvia to name a few.

Some of the major dangers in Canada include:

- Risk of terrorist attack
- Petty crime such as pick pocketing and street theft occurs at tourist destinations, hotels and on public transport.
- The province of British Columbia in western Canada is in an active earthquake zone
- Alberta and British Columbia are also subject to avalanches. Tornadoes can occur in some areas of Canada between May and September.
- Bush and forest fires can occur any time in Canada. (Fires in the winter?)

I checked Estonia out on their site. Eesti is consider one step safer than Canada, some of the dangers include:
- You should avoid demonstrations and large public gatherings as they may turn violent.
- Driving in Estonia can be dangerous due to local driving practices, poorly maintained roads and vehicles, and inadequate road lighting.
- When you are in Estonia, be aware that local laws and penalties, including ones that appear harsh by Australian standards, do apply to you.

Canada sure sounds like a scary place. :)

You're fired

There's a lot of ink being spent in Estonia on a new employment law that was announced yesterday. I haven't read many specifics about the law, mainly because most of the press is going towards the battle between Reform and the Sotsid who dislike the bill. I gather that the bill makes firing employees easier which is upsetting a lot of people, if anyone has more details on the actual bill I'd love to hear them.

What did strike me as interesting in this bill is that it provides every employee with 15 days a year for an "educational vacation". I think this a great idea, it's a way to ensure that your population continues to upgrade their skills and gives employees a chance to break from the everyday work life and learn something new and interesting. I expect we'll see a proliferation of schools and companies offering 2 week courses in all sorts of topics if this bill passes.

An surprise benefit of Shengen

Apparently Nashi activists are pissed at Estonia again (although I don't think they ever stopped). This time it is because as of last month when Eesti joined the Shengen visa free zone which allows for border free travel in the EU they have shared their "banned list" of people denied entry to Estonia with the rest of the EU. Because of this there are a number of Nashi (reportedly around 2000) who are now barred from entering any Shengen country, essentially all of the EU except England and Ireland. Nashi activists have gotten so obsessed with getting to Tallinn that they've resorted to crossing borders illegally on foot.

Is Russia trying to devalue the Estonian Kroon?

There are reports in the papers today that Russian websites are saying that the Eesti Kroon is being devalued and people should cash in their EEK's for Euros. Officials have come out and said that this is not true but that hasn't stopped a number of people from rushing to currency exchange places to convert their kroons. Apparently most of the people converting have been ethnic Russians in places like Idu-Virumaa and it hasn't spread much further.

So the question is whether the Russian government (directly or through its various proxies) is trying to cause the kroon to collapse and whether they could succeed? Eesti Pank has said that they have more than enough foreign currency reserves to hold the peg and since the Kroon is a fairly illiquid currency on the global market I doubt that Russia or any Russian organization has enough kroons to sell to make any impact. Also, since the biggest losers of a devalued Kroon would likely be the Swedish banks that control Estonian finances they'd probably do everything they can to purchase the excess money that is coming onto the market. So the only real option would be to try to cause an internal "run on the bank" and get locals to sell their Kroons, which it seems like they are trying to do at the moment but I doubt it will work.

Now I wonder what would happen if Russia tried to push the value of the kroon up instead of down? Could this ruin the economy by making exports unrealistically expensive? Hypothetically if Russia took some of the vast amounts of money they make every day off of oil and started buying kroons they could push up the value of the kroon to effect an already vulnerable economy. I haven't thought this through very much so I'm sure there's a reason why this wouldn't work but it's an interesting thought nonetheless. Most likely Eesti Pank could flood the market with more kroons bringing the value back down to normal and negating any impact.

Economic Crisis a good thing?

Sten caused a bit of a stir this past weekend when some of his comments at a innovation forum made the newspaper. Sten was quoted as saying that Eesti could use a good old economic crash at this point in order to secure the economic future of the country. He argues that Eestlased have gotten a bit lazy, that life is going so well and the money is rolling in so there's no need for radical change. This is good in the short term but long term will hurt Eesti which still relies greatly on Old Town tourism, (no longer) cheap labour, a real estate boom and transit corridors as sources of income.

I think Sten hits the nail on the head and a little shake up is necessary in order to re-order the school system and focus the country on a sustainable economy of innovation and services. Looking at the recent economic stats (GDP growth hits a 4 year low) we may be in process of that correction, whether or not it will be severe enough to shake things up is yet to be seen.

Inflatable

Estonian inflation hit 8.5% in October, nice. I don't see much about it in the papers or any comment from the government. I haven't seen a single step by the government to curb inflation (not that they have many options) and I'm starting to wonder if anyone in Eesti understands the economic consequences of high inflation? Ansip proudly stated that they hadn't adopted the Euro yet not because of any internal problem but because of the strict Euro entry requirements, wonder if he still uses that (weak) argument?

Estonian Identity Act

The topic of ethnic relations has been on the radar in Estonia for the past 6 months since the riots. Quebec languages laws have often been compared and contrasted with Eesti so I was amused when I read an article in the paper today about the purposed "Quebec Identity Act" which the Parti Québécois is purposing in Quebec.

Essentially the law would create a "Quebec citizenship" which you can get if you speak French and know enough about Quebec culture and history (I'm assuming through some sort of test?). Without Quebec citizenship you would not be able to for the National Assembly, municipal council or school posts, and from contributing to political parties (even Federal Parties) or petitioning the assembly. The article gives a nice example: Just imagine. A born-in-Canada computer analyst from Toronto who moves to Montreal for work could apply for "Quebec citizenship" only if he or she speaks French and knows Quebec culture..

Even if this proposal were somehow to become law (which it won't) there's no way it would survive a legal challenge but it's always interesting to see that Estonia's ethnic integration issues aren't unique and exists even very close to home.

The Estonian Threat

I just read an article in the NY Times about what Putin may do to stay in power. This paragraph struck me:

The other option would not require Mr. Putin to move out of the Kremlin even for a short time. According to the Russian Constitution, the president may declare martial law in the case of aggression or “direct threat of aggression.” A subsequent “martial law regime” could be easily fashioned by the Parliament to include the cancellation of elections until the “threat” is over. The “threat” could be found to emanate from Estonia, which has been sharply denounced by Russia’s official propaganda this year. Estonia’s ambassador in Moscow has been harassed by a government-organized youth group and its Web sites have been subject to cyberattacks.

I've got to wonder what kind of "threat" Eesti could pose to Russia to cause martial law? I can't even think of a made up threat that Russia could come up with that would require martial law, any ideas?

Adopt the EURO now?

There's an interesting article on EPL today that talk about Estonia adopting the EURO as a parallel currency to the Kroon. All sorts of transactions such as payroll and taxes could be done in either currency. This has been brought up because it's clear that Eesti won't be joining the Eurozone anytime soon as inflation continues to rise out of control and the government is incapable (or unwilling) to address it. Two of the ruling parties have talked about this and it appears to be something that is under study and consideration, how serious that consideration is is unknown.

My thinking is why not take it one step further. Why not simply abolish the Kroon and adopt the Euro unilaterally? There are a number of countries that use the US Dollar even though there not part of America, so why doesn't Eesti make a similar move? There may be EU laws against it, I don't know, but it may be worth considering.

Singing Revolution - Canadian Premiere

Last night I attended the Canadian premier of The Signing Revolution film at the Ontario Science Centre. The movie was part of the EstDocs film festival, a Estonian documentary film festival that is in it's 3rd year here in Toronto. The event was sold out, with an about 500 guests in attendance including 2 member's of Canada's parliament and Mart Laar who spoke about the film. One of the film's creators, Maureen Castle Tusty, was also in attendance and introduced the film. (You can see a video of the intro at Eesti.ca)

I had seen the movie earlier and wrote a bit about it but this was the first time seeing it on a big screen with a crowd. Most of those in attendance either fled Estonia during the war or were born to parents who fled so there was a personal connection for most people there. The film received a very warm reception, including a 5 minute standing ovation at the end. It was followed by a nice Q&A with Mart and Maureen where they explained a bit of the background of the movie, how footage was collected, how the inspiration for the film came and some of the challenges of making it.

The film is opening in Los Angeles and New York in December (I believe the weeks of Dec 7th and 14th respectively) and I urge you to go to SingingRevolution.com and register for a screening in your area if you're interested. If you are familiar or interested in eastern european history or have a connection with Estonia, chances are you are going to enjoy this movie. Documentaries are difficult sells, especially ones about small northern countries most people haven't heard of, so supporting this movie is important.

Please, don't give me a raise.

Eesti has little control over it's own economy at this point, and the little control the government does have they don't want to use because they were elected based on the promise that everyone would be rich. Now the head of the Estonian Central Bank, Andres Lipstok, has come out and asked people not to request a raise next year. Seriously? This is how far Estonian economic policy has fallen, we have to beg people not try and get a raise? Doesn't instill much confidence in the governments management of the economy.

Estonian Corruption Alert

Looks like a member of parliament is in another apparent corruption scandal. This time it's Ester Tuiksoo, a member of the Rahvaliit party. The claim is that she's been driving around in Oliver "Kohuke" Kruuda's car for awhile without paying for it. She's also being looked into for some shady apartment deals that have gone down recently. I wonder what the blowback for this will be? Probably very little going on previous similar incidents, taking gifts or doing business with major contributors doesn't seem to bother anyone. I wonder what would happen in a country like Sweden where politicians resign for a lot less.

Singing Revolution Toronto Screening

A couple of people have asked when the Toronto screening will be for The Singing Revolution movie.

The Toronto screening is on October 21st at 5:30pm, it is being held at the Ontario Science Centre (Don Mills & Eglinton). Before the movie there will be a reception with one of the directors and Mart Laar, the 2 time Estonian Prime Minister and current head of the IRL party.

As for screenings in other locations, I have no information. I suggest you check out the website and/or try and contact the makers of the film for more info.

Singing Revolution movie review

While I was in Eesti I was lucky enough to see the movie "Singing Revolution", a new documentary about the Estonian occupation and the independence movement of the late 80's and early 90's. The movie isn't only about singing, rather it uses singing and it's place in Estonian culture to tie together a number of different historical elements to tell the story of Estonian Re-independence.

The first thing that strikes you is the amazing production quality of the movie, this is a top rate Hollywood production that has interviews with most of the important players of that time and has some amazing archival footage that is rarely seen elsewhere. The directors do an amazing job of telling the story of how the Estonian people fought for independence with song and non-violent protest as well as some clever exploitation of Gorbachev's perestroika era to assert their freedom. The movie was able to show how independence didn't come easy for Estonia as there were many different thoughts on how best to achieve freedom and that internally the local activists had trouble agreeing on the best way to proceed. The footage from the 80's and 90's is amazing, I vaguely remember the events of that time but seeing it all put together in this film really helps put together what happened during those important years.

I guess the only small critique of the movie could be the glossing over of some events during the second world war as well as barely any mention of the struggle for freedom that was done outside of Eesti for 50 years by the Estonians who fled in the 40's. These are small issues and in no way diminish the wonderful movie. I strongly recommend that if you get a chance to see the movie that you do, you won't regret it. I believe that the film is having a screening in Toronto sometime in mid-October which I will gladly attend again. The trailer to the movie can be seen below.

Back in Eesti, briefly.

I spent the past two weeks in Eesti and Sweden on vacation so I'll spend a couple of entries to summarize my short time back in Europe.

The plan was to spend the first week in Saaremaa at Liisa's cottage so I decided to take an uncommon route and flew Toronto-Frankfurt-Stockholm-Kuresaare all in one leg. It was a long day and didn't go as planned thanks to US Airways (more on them in a later post) but leaving Toronto and landing in Kuresaare is quite a world of difference, but once I got there it was well worth the wait. I spent most of the first week simply relaxing by the sea, reading, catching some sun and enjoying Eesti õlu.

Unsurprisingly Saaremaa has changed little since I last visited, aside from a newer airport all seems the same and life goes slowly by. Liisa and I talked about what life would be like living in a place like Lümanda, the next day we got a bit of real life when we went to the local store to buy some milk and other small items. We were the only ones in the store not buying alcohol, it was only 10:30am. It Reform was to actually live up to it's not and make some serious changes they could tackle the drinking problem that exists in Estonia instead of ignoring it and ordering special beers for holidays.

After winding down in Saaremaa we decided to go to Tallinn for a couple of days before heading to Stockholm. Back in Tallinn I immediately headed out to a couple of my favorite haunts for food and drinks. I managed to meet up with some old friends, old colleagues and even some fellow Canadian-Estonians that were in town. There were a number of people I didn't get to see and I apologize for that, I simply had too little time in Tallinn and was there mostly over the holiday long weekend when a lot of people were out of town.

Liisa and I managed to do a couple of touristy things while there, there aren't many things in Tallinn that I haven't seen but we decided to go visit the Bronze Man in his new resting spot (a bit hard to find, much nicer location imo) and also visited the newly opened tunnels under Toompea (very interesting). We also spent some time checking out some of our favorite neighborhoods should we ever decided the real estate market has dropped enough. We caught a modern dance performance at the Kanuti Gildi Saal in Tallinn. Thankfully we knew what we were getting ourselves into so when two naked, middle aged men started dancing around stage (and at one point in the audience) we weren't as shocked as some of the people sitting close to us.

One thing I noticed was the steady price increase on pretty much everything has continued since I left. Prices on certain items (ie. food and beer in restaurants) seems to have risen 30% or more since I moved to Tallinn in 2004. It's at the point now where it's no much cheaper to go out in Tallinn then it is in Toronto, the only big difference is the deplorable service you get in most places in Tallinn (yes, I'm mean you Double Coffee).

I also managed to catch a screening of Signing Revolution, the new documentary about Estonian independence, appropriately on Taasiseseisvumispäev. I'll write more about the film at some later point, it hasn't been release wide as far as I know but if you do get a chance to see it I highly recommend it.

Overall being back in Eesti, albeit for such a short time, was great and I plan on coming back as soon as possible.

Dinner with Mart

Last night I had dinner with Mart Laar who is staying at my mother's house for a few days while he's in town.

I'll skip over what was discussed for privacy sake but will say that my respect for Mart as a politician and intellectual rose dramatically last night.

Tomorrow I'm off to Saaremaa!

Kommentaarid

I was just reading the reader comments over at Postimess attached to the article about Ansip's visit to Toronto. Man, there are some angry people around. According to a lot of these people Canadian-Estonians should keep their mouths shut.

Some examples:

MIDA KÜLL RASKEL AJAL KANADASSE PLAGANUD EESTLANE IKKA NII VÄGA TEAB.MINU JAOKS ON NAD LIHTSALT LIHTSA ELU OTSIJAD JA HINGE KODUMAA EEST NEIL KAH EI OLE.KANGELASED OLID NEED KES SIIA JÄID.kODUEESTLASED MA MÕTLEN.

and

Mingitel kanada eestlastel pole küll sel teemal õigust sõna võtta. Mis nad teavad okkupantidest või kommunistides? Las elavad edasi oma vahtralehe varjus, ei tea nad midagi sellest mis siin viimase 60 aasta jooksul toimus, ja vist tahagi teada, sest eriti nad tagasi tulema ei kipu.

I'm not totally sure why some "kodueestlased" have so much animosity towards "väliseestlased", some people say they are pissed that some got out in the 40's and others didn't but I don't know what the real reason is. I never personally experienced much of this sentiment when I was living in Eesti but I know it exists. There are only so many Eestlased around, we should at least try and be civil to each other.

All I know for sure is that reading comments to articles can be maddening.